Your guide to understanding NY's minimum wage future

• How Cuomo might try to get $15 for all and what it would mean to workers and businesses.

An awful lot of information spewed from both sides on increasing the minimum wage in New York state.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who kicked off the push in Rochester last spring, has maintained that increasing the minimum wage to $15 for all would ease reliance on public assistance, lift 250,000 out of poverty and generate about $15.7 billion in increased wages for lower-end wage earners.

But critics have pointed out that such a measure, sporadically enacted in the fast food industry and some branches of government, would force businesses to dramatically cut workers and raise prices.

On Thursday, the Builder’s Exchange of Rochester invited E.J. McMahon, president of the conservative think-tank Empire Center for Public Policy, Mark Peterson of Greater Rochester Enterprise, and other leaders to discuss the adverse impact of a $15 minimum wage on business and nonprofits.

After listening to both sides of the debate — and much of the rhetoric — over these last eight months, here’s what such a minimum wage increase would mean to individuals, businesses and how Cuomo might try to get it approved for everyone.

Why bother in the first place?

Cuomo has often said that the current minimum wage in New York, set to go up to $9 an hour at the end of year for everyone, currently does not provide a livable wage. Increasing it would help 2.2 million New Yorkers. Supporters have also pointed out that while business profits have risen by 61 percent between 2001 and 2013, labor compensation only increased by 34 percent.

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What will the job losses look like?

The Empire Center for Public Policy issued a report last month stating that increasing the minimum wage for everyone in the state would cost about 200,000 jobs. Anywhere from 13,600 to 38,400 jobs would be lost in the Finger Lakes region, according to its report.

It would cost the YMCAs operating in the state about $40 million a year, Kyle Stewart, executive director of the Alliance of New York State YMCAs, said during Thursday's meeting. Labor costs would go up by 40 percent at CDS Monarch, Sankar Sewnauth, president and CEO, said at the meeting.

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Is it really the highest minimum wage around?

The increase enacted for fast-food workers boosts minimum wages in New York by about 70 percent.

McMahon said on Thursday that the $9 minimum wage going into effect at the end of this year would be the highest the state has had in 35 years, adding that the average minimum wage in 2015 dollars over the last 60 years is $8.40. It’s also higher than anything scheduled in neighboring states, where the highest scheduled increase is to $11 by 2017 in Massachusetts.

"This is going to be profoundly disruptive to the economy," McMahon said. "I think it could be quite significant."

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Why has it increased for some and not others?

Cuomo cannot unilaterally enact a minimum wage increase. He needs support from both the state Assembly and the Senate and doesn't have it from the Republican-controlled Senate. He was able to get an increase approved for fast-food workers of large chains by appointing a wage board that circumvented traditional approvals to recommend an increase earlier this year. Cuomo has since increased the minimum wage of state workers to $15, a move that mayors in Rochester and other upstate cities, have enacted in their administrations.

It's not really all about fast-food workers — is it?

McMahon said that roughly 31 percent of all workers, or about 155,000 people, in the Rochester metro area as of 2014 worked in non-food service jobs that paid less than $15 an hour.

Home health aides, nursing assistants, clerks, childcare workers, tellers, drivers, even substitute teachers all have median wages in 2014 of less than $15 an hour. Childcare workers had a median salary of $9.58, he said.

What does the rollout schedule look like?

The minimum wage for fast-food workers at large chains, state employees and workers of some upstate cities, including Rochester, will increase along the following schedule:

$9.75 on Dec. 31, 2015;

$10.75 on Dec. 31, 2016;

$11.75 on Dec. 31, 2017;

$12.75 on Dec. 31, 2018;

$13.75 on Dec. 31, 2019;

$14.50 on Dec. 31, 2020; and

$15 on July 1, 2021.

The rates for the types of workers are scheduled to increase to $15 an hour by Dec. 31, 2018.

What’s next?

Expect Cuomo to announce further details on increasing the minimum wage for everyone during his State of the State address in January. Leaders attending Thursday's meeting thought he would announce some sort of tax incentive or other program to benefit business, although Cuomo has yet to announce anything formally.

TCLAUSEN@Gannett.com