By the numbers: Local population changes since 2010
Webster, Penfield, and Henrietta lead Monroe County in percentage growth this decade for communities of 10,000 or more, while Irondequoit, Rochester and Sweden have seen headcounts slide.
The overall shifts between 2010 and 2016 have been modest — with gains of no more than 5 percent, and losses of less than 2 percent, according to the latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Monroe County held steady in total population between 2010 and 2016, estimates show, the overall headcount increasing by just more than a third of one percent, or just less than 3,400 people.
Among smaller communities, the villages of Honeoye Falls and Churchville, along with the town of Clarkson were the biggest movers in population growth, while the village of Scottsville and town of Wheatland slipped the most (still, less than 50 people each).
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In terms of actual residents added, Webster is estimated to have welcomed 2,100 additional residents, while Rochester saw an overall loss of 1,700, and Irondequoit dropped by 1,100, census records show, with declines coming in the last four years for both
The numbers raised eyebrows at Rochester City Hall, where city spokesman James Smith pointed to the strong real estate market and new apartment construction.
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"It seems a little peculiar given what we are seeing," Smith said, though adding that the estimated decline of -0.83 percent is marginal. "Homes are selling very quickly. It seems that right now the city is in a period of great demand as it relates to residential housing, which would lead me to believe we are seeing some growth."
The findings mirror the larger trend in the Census Bureau's data, which show general declines in all but the largest places in the Northeast, and growth primarily in the South.
"Overall, cities in the South continue to grow at a faster rate than any other U.S region," said Amel Toukabri, a demographer in the Census Bureau's population division.
Since the 2010 Census, Toukabri said, the population of large southern cities grew by an average of 9.4 percent, while cities in the Northeast grew an average of 1.8 percent.
Between 2015 and 2016, New York City added 21,100 people, the fourth-largest numeric increase in the Census Bureau's data, behind Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Antonio. It was the only New York metro area in the top 15.
Buffalo lost nearly 1,500 in that period, falling to 256,902. Syracuse lost about 700, bringing its estimated population to almost 143,400, and Albany lost about 150, falling to 98,100.
The new data release updates the bureau's annual population estimates, which previously covered counties only, to include incorporated places like cities and towns, smaller named places like villages and consolidated city-county governments.
Nationwide, small population centers of less than 5,000 people had uneven growth since 2015. In the Northeast, places like that declined, on average 0.5 percent, while in the West they grew an average of 0.8 percent.
The average city of less then 10,000 people in the Northeast shrank slightly, by 0.1 percent, while similar-sized cities elsewhere tended to grow, according to the Census Bureau.
The Census Bureau's annual population estimates are designed to benchmark population, economic and demographic changes for places in the United States and Puerto Rico between the once-a-decade Census counts. Unlike the decennial Census, the annual figures are not counts, but estimates based on a host of data and projections collected and performed by the bureau. They are therefore less precise than the official Censuses, but the methods are applied consistently, and the numbers are used for planning and comparison by a host of government agencies and nonprofits.
The new data fall in line with earlier releases from the Census Bureau. In March, it updated its county-level population estimates for 2016, which showed declines across the state.
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According to that data, New York's population shrank between 2015 and 2016 by about 2,000 people, largely due to out-migration. From the Binghamton metropolitan area, for example, more than three people on average moved to other states every day for the past six years.
Only 16 of the state's 63 counties gained population between July 2010 and July 2016, and only half of those were outside the city, Long Island and the Lower Hudson Valley.
BY THE NUMBERS
Population change in Monroe County municipalities from 2010 Census to 2016 population estimate.
2010 2016 Change
City of Rochester 210,565 208,880 -0.8%
Town of Brighton 36,609 36,598 0%
Town of Chili 28,625 28,794 0.6%
Town of Clarkson 6,736 7,040 4.5%
Town of East Rochester 6,587 6,611 0.4%
Town of Gates 28,400 28,691 1%
Town of Greece 96,095 96,175 0.1%
Town of Hamlin 9,045 9,055 0.1%
Town of Henrietta 42,581 43,690 2.6%
Town of Irondequoit 51,692 50,556 -2.2%
Town of Mendon 9,152 9,327 1.9%
Town of Ogden 19,856 20,264 2.1%
Town of Parma 15,633 15,771 0.9%
Town of Penfield 36,242 37,329 3%
Town of Perinton 46,462 46,713 0.5%
Town of Pittsford 29,405 29,463 0.2%
Town of Riga 5,590 5,627 0.7%
Town of Rush 3,478 3,475 -0.1%
Town of Sweden 14,175 14,184 0.1%
Town of Webster 42,641 44,743 4.9%
Town of Wheatland 4,775 4,741 -0.7%
Village of Brockport 8,366 8,319 -0.6%
Village of Churchville 1,961 2,042 4.1%
Village of East Rochester 6,587 6,611 0.4%
Village of Fairport 5,353 5,406 1%
Village of Hilton 5,886 5,876 -0.2%
Village of Honeoye Falls 2,674 2,820 5.5%
Village of Pittsford 1,355 1,339 -1.2%
Village of Scottsville 2,001 1,958 -2.1%
Village of Spencerport 3,601 3,669 1.9%
Village of Webster 5,399 5,551 2.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.